Hillary Is Running But Is Donald ?
Gilbert N. Kahn is a professor of Political Science at Kean University.
Hillary’s Campaign: No Mistakes
The presidential race appears to be moving at such a fast pace that Hillary’s major problem will be to not making any mistakes. The current polls—national, state-wide, key states, battleground states—all show her with a sizeable margin ahead of Trump. Ironically, what her strategy must be is to run an exceedingly conservative race. She cannot stray off of her script and must stay on message. She must not alienate any supporters or independents. Together with her base plus most of the Sanders voters, and many non-Trump Republicans, Clinton should have little trouble winning election according to the latest polling. There are no new audiences to whom to appeal. All Clinton must do is avoid alienating any segment. This is not about how she will govern it is strictly about winning.
Trump’s Campaign: Not Clear
The ironic factor in this year’s election is that if there was virtually anyone else running on the Republican ticket this election would likely go right down to the wire. Unfortunately for Trump it now appears that baring a political earthquake he has no chance to repair the damage he has done to himself and to the GOP. While the polls will probably tighten a bit, to date there is no indication that Trump will be elected.
There is an additional factor to consider given Trump’s personality and business track record. Trump could very well throw up his hands, say he’s been robbed, the election was rigged, and walk away. Losing does not enter his personality profile or record.
The time to watch for a radical move probably is after the first debate. If this one-on-one does not shift the tide, Trump may truly announce he is no longer interested in being President and walk off into the sunset. He will not allow himself to lose and does not care what he does to the Republican Party or even to the national political system. The fact that the Republican Party will probably lose the House as well as the Senate does not faze him in the slightest.
Trump figures that he will always be around to critique the system. He really does not want any responsibility for something that he finally realizes he alone cannot control. Like in his business deals if he alone cannot determine the outcome so he wins, he will not do the deal.